Oil Crashed. The Relief Rally Came Back.

GOOD MORNING, Markets swung from panic to relief in a matter of hours Monday. President Donald Trump postponed planned strikes on Iranian power plants after what he called productive conversations with Tehran, sending oil sharply lower and all three major U.S. indexes up more than 1%. Iran disputed that talks had taken place, so the peace trade remains fragile. Meanwhile, Nebius closed a $4.34 billion convertible-debt raise to fund as much as $20 billion of AI capex this year — proof that capital is still chasing compute even while macro risk is surging.

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MARKETS | TLDR

• Stocks rally as Trump delays Iran strikes: The Dow rose 1.38%, the S&P 500 gained 1.15% and the Nasdaq added 1.38% after Washington postponed attacks on Iranian power infrastructure.
• Oil tumbles on de-escalation hopes: U.S. crude fell 9.61% to $88.84 and Brent dropped 10.94% to $99.90 as investors priced a lower probability of immediate escalation around Hormuz.
• Rate-hike fears cool with crude: The implied probability of a December Fed hike fell sharply as lower oil reduced the inflation shock embedded in rates.

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RELIEF TRADE

Oil Crashed. The Relief Rally Came Back.

Wall Street rallied Monday after President Donald Trump said he had postponed planned strikes on Iranian power plants following what he described as productive conversations with Tehran. The Dow gained 631 points, the S&P 500 rose 1.15% and the Nasdaq climbed 1.38%, while cyclical sectors outperformed as investors moved back into risk.

The transmission mechanism was oil. Crude had been the market's main inflation channel from the war, pushing Treasury yields higher and forcing investors to consider a Fed hike instead of the cuts they expected only weeks earlier. When Brent and WTI fell sharply, the entire macro setup eased at once: lower energy prices meant less pressure on inflation, rates and long-duration equity valuations.

The caveat is that Iran denied any such talks had taken place. That leaves Monday's rally dependent on a diplomatic signal that remains disputed. The market is therefore pricing a lower probability of immediate escalation, not a durable end to the war. Until Hormuz physically reopens and energy flows normalize, relief can reverse as quickly as it arrived.

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AI FINANCING

Nebius Just Raised $4.3 Billion to Keep Spending

Nebius closed a $4.34 billion convertible-debt financing, giving the European AI infrastructure company fresh capital to support a 2026 capex plan of $16 billion to $20 billion. The raise follows a $2 billion warrant sale to Nvidia and a Meta data-center contract worth up to $27 billion.

The financing structure is as important as the size. Nebius expects about 60% of growth to be funded by customer prepayments — largely from Microsoft and Meta — with the remaining 40% coming from equity and debt. That lets the company expand capacity without relying entirely on its own balance sheet before the infrastructure starts generating revenue.

The broader signal is that AI compute demand is still attracting enormous amounts of capital even during a volatile macro backdrop. The risk is execution: Nebius still has to turn billions of dollars of financing into data centers, power and cloud revenue on schedule. Strong demand for its debt shows investors believe in the buildout. It does not eliminate the capital-intensity problem.

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HEADLINES

• The global equity selloff had reached a four-month low before the reversal: Investors entered Monday moving toward cash as oil, yields and stagflation risk rose together — making the afternoon rebound unusually sharp.
• Brent had traded above $113 before peace hopes hit: The intraday reversal shows just how much geopolitical risk premium had accumulated around Hormuz and energy infrastructure.
• Treasury yields had climbed to nine-month highs: Higher oil had pushed investors to price a much more restrictive Fed path before Monday's de-escalation signal reversed part of the move.
• Synopsys rises after Elliott builds a position: The activist stake added a company-specific catalyst to a software name trading inside a broader market dominated by rates and AI.
• Nebius says customer prepayments will fund most of its expansion: Microsoft and Meta contracts are becoming financing tools as well as revenue opportunities, reducing the amount of external capital Nebius needs to raise.

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UPCOMING

• Consumer confidence and new-home sales arrive March 24: Household confidence and housing demand will show whether higher energy prices are already affecting spending intentions and big-ticket purchases.
• Durable-goods orders arrive March 25: Capital-goods demand will offer a read on whether business investment is holding up despite higher rates and geopolitical uncertainty.
• Jobless claims arrive March 26: Weekly claims will test whether labor-market resilience is giving the Fed room to stay focused on inflation.
• Final March consumer sentiment arrives March 27: The survey will show whether the oil shock is leaving a lasting mark on household inflation expectations even if crude continues to fall.

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DEEP INSIGTHS

Markets Were Starting to Price Stagflation

Reuters' investor survey captures the regime markets were entering before Monday's relief rally: higher commodity prices, weaker growth expectations and fewer reliable safe havens. The useful takeaway is that the war was no longer being treated as a temporary geopolitical shock — it was becoming an inflation-and-growth problem.

Nebius Says It Is “Well-Funded” for the AI Race

The financing breakdown is useful because it shows how AI infrastructure companies are combining debt, equity, warrants and customer prepayments to fund expansion. That mix reduces dilution but also makes future returns dependent on deploying capital efficiently enough to keep pace with contractual commitments.